Quantitative analysis outcome for German GDP loss and total, one-time cost per citizen as a result of cutting all Russian energy imports. Table 2 Baqaee-Farhi (2021), Simplified model, 10% Simplified model, full model oil, gas, coal shock 30% gas shock GDP, % decline 0.2-0.3 1.3 22 GNE, % 0.2-0.3 15 ag Cost per citizen t t t optimistic realistic worst-case scenario Exhibit: A Sizable Hit to European Output Relative To GVA No Shack Mit Baseline Sconarios Percent 2022 GVA ‚Average Hit Basod On Approaches Percent Relative To No Shack Baseline Percent ‚Average Approaches Percent Percent No Ulein Flowe